President Trump stated tonight (once again) in his State of the Union address that there are “94 million unemployed Americans”.
Let’s take a few minutes to dissect that number to judge the validity of that statement.
There are roughly 323 million people living in the United States. If there were 94 million people unemployed, that would mean, the unemployment rate is now at 29%. In 1933, in the middle of the Great Depression, unemployment peaked at 25% for all workers. [*1]
If current unemployment was at 29%, the United States would be in deep, deep do-do: we would be in a second Great Depression. The economy would not be what it is today, the stock market would not be where it currently is. There would be huge numbers of people waiting in food lines, there would be huge numbers of businesses going out of business, etc.
But that’s assuming all 323 million are capable of or eligible to work.
And that is an incorrect assumption.
There are two categories of Americans who shouldn’t be included in that total of 323 million: children, and the elderly. Children under than age of 18 account for roughly 23% of all Americans, giving us 74 million people under the age of 18. And, then there are roughly 15% Americans over the age of 65. 15% of 323 million, gives 48 million people who are of retirement age.
Summing up the number of children and people over the age of retirement, that gives 122 million who are either children or at or above retirement age.
Take the number of all Americans (323 million), and subtract 122 million of people who are either still in school or at or above retirement age, that leaves approximately 201 million employable Americans. Taking the number that was given mentioned in the State of the Union address tonight of 94 million unemployed Americans and divide by 201 employable Americans, gives us a truly horrible and very unrealistic unemployment rate of 46%.
Whether you use 94 million unemployed out of all 323 million Americans (29% unemployed), or you use 94 million unemployed out of 201 million employable Americans (46% unemployed), both percentages are HIGHLY UNREALISTIC.
According to verified sources, unemployment in the US peaked at roughly 10% in October, 2009 during the recent “Great Recession”.
Using the higher 323 million, that would mean roughly 32 million people were out of work. Using the lower number of 201 million employable people, that meant 20 million were out of work during that period.
Either way, when the US was going through the greatest period of recession less than ten years ago, we had somewhere between 20 to 30 million people out of work.
IF there were 94 million people unemployed now (which is from 4 to 5 times greater than the number of that were unemployed during ~2008-2011 recession), don’t you think it would be reflected in the current economy, the current stock market, the number of business and personal bankruptcies??
If that number of 94 million was accurate, the US would be in a Great Depression like the one in the late 1920s and 1930s.
There is no way that unemployment number of 94 million ever, ever makes sense. President Trump uses that number to scare us into thinking/believing that this country is “failing” – and it’s not. If it were true, we would be seeing the same headlines we saw at the end of 2008, and throughout 2009, and 2010 and 2011.
Actually, we would be seeing the headlines that people saw in 1929-1933, etc. And, of course, we are not.
Therefore, I take huge exception with President Trump using that grossly invalid number when he speaks of unemployment in the US. I would appreciate your comments and/or feedback to this post.
Thanks for taking the time to read this.
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Disclaimers:
1. The data I used only had statistics regarding the number of people age 18 or younger. I do know and recognize that that number or percentage I used was slightly incorrect such that it excludes people age 16-17 that should have been included in the employable number. [*2]
2. Same for the retirement age number of people. The data I used only had a number / percentage stating from age 65 and older. I also am aware that that number or percentage was slightly incorrect since, there are people who still desire to work after the age of 65, and because of the use of that number / percentage, it excluded those that should have bern included in the employable number as well. [*2] Obviously when adding the above two categories of employable people to the 201 million that I calculated would (of course) decrease the calculated 46% unemployment rate (somewhat), but it still would not affect the supposedly “29%” unemployment rate where we used the total number of Americans (323 million).
[*2]. https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045216/00
[*1]. http://thegreatdepressioncauses.com/unemployment/
